High housing costs among the reasons why these San Diego schools may be closing

Neighborhood schools could be a thing of the past for some students in the South Bay Union School District as officials contemplate closures amid declining enrollment and financial challenges. 

The drop in enrollment is so severe that the district is considering merging some elementary school campuses. Officials have cited several reasons behind the lower student numbers: high housing costs, declining birth rates and an increased interest in alternative options, including charter schools and homeschooling.

South Bay Union, which serves students in Imperial Beach, San Ysidro and south San Diego, had about 6,000 students in 2011. By 2025, the district is projected to have about 3,200 students — a loss of nearly half. 

No final decisions have been made, but a looming budget deficit may force the district to make further cuts, its superintendent told inewsource. 

“We’re looking at how do we continue to tighten our belt without really breaking anything, which becomes really difficult,” said Jose Espinoza, who has led the district since 2022.

A 31-member committee made up of administrators, principals, teachers and parents has met in recent months to discuss consolidating schools. It will present a recommendation by April.

Among the scenarios that the committee is considering: Move all students from one closed campus to another school, or spread them throughout several nearby campuses. Any option will require a major investment to repurpose the site, ranging as low as $9 million to as high as nearly $50 million, district records show. 

“We want people to understand, here’s why these decisions are being made — and they’re really hard — but at the end, it’s going to ensure that our district can continue to function,” Espinoza said. 

All South Bay Union schools, which serve students who are mostly low-income and are Hispanic or Latino, have each lost at least a fifth of their students over the past decade. Some campuses have been hit particularly hard — Mendoza Elementary, Berry Elementary and Emory Academy of Global Leadership and Empowerment have each lost about 40% of their students. 

Those numbers are expected to worsen by 2025. 

Other districts across San Diego County also are reeling from enrollment declines. San Diego Unified, the county’s largest district, reported a 13% dip since 2014.

Statewide, enrollment in public schools across has dropped for the sixth year in a row.

One reason: Birth rates in the state are down by a third from nearly two decades ago. California’s birth rate dipped from roughly 16 births per 1,000 people in 2007 to about 11 births in 2022, Axios San Diego reported. 

South Bay Union officials also say parents in the area are becoming more attracted to charter schools and homeschooling. Charter schools within the district have seen enrollment grow by nearly 10% over the past decade, though the district projects they will have about 50 fewer students in 2025 compared to last year. 

Espinoza also pointed to the cost of housing — and the lack of vacant land to build new homes — pricing out the district’s families. 

Nearly two in three San Diegans are considering moving out of the region because of the cost of living, as inewsource previously reported. Between 2010 and 2020, median home sale prices in Imperial Beach more than doubled — the highest percent increase among cities in south and east San Diego County.

South Bay Union has been dealing with budget woes since at least 2014. After Espinoza came in, the district consolidated some staff positions and offered early retirement incentives to help address the district’s structural deficit. 

But at the end of this school year, the district still anticipates a deficit of roughly $1.5 million. It plans to tap into funding set aside by board members last year to mitigate the enrollment declines.

Still, if the district is not able to deal with declining enrollment, Espinoza said the district will be forced to make staffing cuts. Right now, the district employs roughly 950 people. 

“Our staff is here to serve students, so if the students aren’t here then we don’t need as much staff to serve the students that we do have,” Espinoza said. “That’s a reality of the challenge that we’re facing.”

Any potential school closures wouldn’t take effect until the 2025-26 year.