4 things to watch in 2024 in San Diego’s border region

This year will be a big one for border and immigration news. 

That will be true for the entire country, as presidential candidates vie for votes in the upcoming November election, and for San Diegans, as world migration trends and the policies driving border enforcement and access continue to impact our region. 

Last year brought several important developments: 

• President Biden ended a controversial pandemic policy that essentially closed the border to asylum seekers and, in its place, created new legal pathways for migrants to enter the U.S.
• San Diego saw the advent of migrant encampments in the county’s southeast desert region and repeated closures of ports of entry, affecting local commerce and border crossers. 
• Border enforcement and surveillance increased along the southern border in San Diego.
• And migration into the U.S. between ports of entry reached record highs.

Here are four things to watch in 2024:

Elections, elections, elections!

Immigration, again, is shaping up to be a top political issue in the presidential race, but this year the stakes are higher. 

Whoever wins the White House in November will help shape U.S. border policy at a time when the number of migrants entering the U.S. between legal ports of entry is at the highest it’s ever been. Those policy decisions will impact migrants and U.S. communities, including the San Diego region, and more.

Immigration also will play a role in shaping local political races, as elected leaders and their challengers debate the local response.

Voters should look out for extreme rhetoric and disinformation about immigrants in general and what’s happening at the border. Narratives about an “invasion” at the border, noncitizens voting illegally, and the “Great Replacement” theory have increasingly moved from the fringe into the mainstream as prominent politicians and media figures spread them. 

Those baseless narratives have real impacts, including inspiring acts of sometimes deadly violence in the U.S. and around the world.  

Former President Donald Trump has taken anti-immigrant rhetoric center stage as he seeks reelection, echoing rhetoric of Adolf Hitler in saying immigrants are “poisoning the blood” of the U.S. He’s faced limited pushback from fellow Republicans, including Nikki Haley, his sole opponent in the GOP presidential nominating race, who said Trump’s rhetoric is “not helpful.” 

Meanwhile, the Biden administration and lawmakers in Washington are facing increasing pressure from Republican and Democratic leaders across the country to act.

Will migrant encampments continue? 

Since May of last year, tens of thousands of migrants have crossed into the United States through gaps in the border wall in southeast San Diego County. 

The record arrivals have led to the rise of makeshift encampments in remote border towns, where migrants wait to be processed by Border Patrol so they can be documented and begin an asylum claim in the U.S.

Families, including young babies and young children, have stayed for hours or days at a time in the open high desert with little shelter, food or water. They’ve braced extreme temperatures and harsh terrain, sometimes falling ill or suffering other medical emergencies. 

San Diego County leaders have funneled millions of dollars toward a welcoming center to receive migrants after they have been processed and while they await transportation to destinations throughout the U.S. But those leaders say the money isn’t enough, and the federal government needs to step in.

Although there seems to be fewer people crossing into the country in this area for now, activists say that could quickly change.

The encampments could swell into the hundreds again, putting pressure on the Border Patrol agents charged with processing them and the activists who have made it their mission to provide humanitarian aid to them. 

The new year could also see shifts among where these encampments are populating. In the past few weeks, aid workers have seen evidence of migrants entering and waiting in other parts of San Diego’s border desert region. 

Access to CBP One appointments 

In May of last year, the Biden administration ended the controversial pandemic policy known as Title 42, which effectively blocked asylum access at the border save for rare exceptions. 

In its place, the administration opened several narrow pathways for migrants from around the world to find respite in the U.S., but the main pathway – securing an appointment through the CBP One, a government app that registers and schedules migrants for processing – remains essentially the only legal way for migrants to access asylum. 

CBP said the agency has gradually increased slots for appointments, but the demand for appointments continues to outpace supply and some families are still waiting months for an appointment. They’ve endured dangerous conditions while waiting in border cities including Tijuana. 

But even for those who have secured appointments, the challenges continue after they enter the U.S., from securing housing to finding a job. 

Will CBP continue to expand appointment slots for migrants? Will more people see shorter waits? And how will those asylum-seekers settle into the U.S. in the next year? 

Ports of entry closures and delays 

The past year saw repeated closures and reopenings of ports of entry, and those closures, even for short periods of time, can have massive effects on border crossers and the economies of border communities. 

Local business leaders have decried the shut downs as an strain on businesses and commuters and others have criticized it as a strategic move by the U.S. to force Mexico to assist in deporting migrants at the expense of border communities.  

Heading south, long waits to get in Mexico have been plaguing the San Ysidro Port of Entry in recent months. 

The situation somewhat improved after Mexico’s president ordered the government to open more lanes to process vehicles, but delays due to construction at the border have continued and might not improve until the project finishes this year. 

Could the new year bring more port of entry shutdowns? Or perhaps improvements in wait times for southbound travelers?