School closure talks continue as South Bay Union enrollment narrowly exceeds grim prediction

South Bay Union is still losing students.

The district reported 3,775 enrolled students last school year, roughly in line with its long-term projections. That’s just 15 students more than it expected and won’t curb the massive declines that have already hit the district — officials project that by 2026 their schools will lose about half of the student population it had more than a decade ago.

“We celebrated not losing as many as was projected and that’s our goal is to prove the projections wrong,” Superintendent Jose Epinoza told inewsource, but “the fact that we are still losing students… we still have to implement something to make sure that our district is solvent.” 

That means campus closures are still possible. Along with fewer students, the district is also projecting a budget shortfall of $5.3 million this year and $7.1 million for the 2025-26 school year. Other school districts in San Diego County are also facing similar problems with declining student enrollment and the loss of COVID-19 pandemic funding.  

Members of a South Bay Union advisory committee — comprising administrators, principals, teachers and parents — have been meeting privately since last year to discuss consolidation recommendations.

Several concepts have been proposed, including grade reconfigurations across campuses, school closures and a focus on specialized programs. Espinoza said the options are “starting points” meant to help members think of what consolidation could look like over the next few years.

Any school closures would take place during the 2025-26 school year at the earliest.

But not all parents are in agreement with school closures and grade configuration. Some parents have become frustrated with the district’s academics and promises to improve programs, prompting out-of-district transfers and further hurting South Bay Union’s enrollment numbers. 

“If there’s nothing, how are kids going to stay here? The parents aren’t going to want them to stay there,” said Yvette Lujan, a grandparent to two Mendoza Elementary students and parent who recently transferred her son out of South Bay Union. 

‘It’s a stressful situation’

South Bay Union officials say grade reconfiguration — changing schools that serve kindergarten through sixth grade, for example, to kindergarten through third grade — can lead to benefits for students, but some parents don’t agree with the idea.

Among them is Lizbeth Becerra, whose daughter, Renata, is a first grader at Nestor Language Academy. 

The family only has one car, prompting a regular morning dilemma: Becerra’s husband uses the car to leave for work around the same time Renata has to head to school. Sometimes they drive to drop Renata off at school if mom needs the car, but that causes Becerra’s husband to be late for work, she said.

That’s why Becerra typically walks her daughter to school, about a 15-minute walk from their home, she said. But under one proposal that the district is discussing, Renata would be among the Nestor students in transitional kindergarten through third grade who would be moved to Berry Elementary — doubling the walking time. And driving Renata to school would result in her dad being even more late to work, Becerra said. 

“It’s a stressful situation not knowing what will happen,” Becerra said in Spanish. “We would arrive even more late than we usually do.”

The consolidation ideas

A South Bay Union committee has been considering options that are meant to address the district’s enrollment declines. Officials could pick an option that would go into effect during the 2025-26 year at the earliest.

Option 1:

Year 1

• Close Central. Students and staff go to Bayside/Emory/Mendoza.
• Grade reconfiguration at Bayside and Oneonta.
• Bayside grades 4-6 go to Oneonta.
• Oneonta grades TK-3 move to Bayside.

Year 2

• Close Berry. Students and staff go to Nicoloff/Emory/Mendoza.
• Grade reconfiguration at Emory, Mendoza and Nestor.
• Emory grades 4-6 move to Mendoza.
• Mendoza grades TK-3 move to Emory.
• Nestor grades TK-3 move to vacated Berry.

Year 3

• Close Sunnyslope. Students and staff go to Pence/Nicoloff.
• Grade reconfiguration at Pence and Nicoloff.
• Pence grades 4-6 move to Nicoloff.
• Nicoloff grades TK-3 move to Pence.

Option 2:

• Close Central. Students and staff go to Bayside/Emory/Mendoza.
• Revisit other aspects of alternative (superintendent’s) proposal at a future date, including closure of Sunnyslope. and Berry and grade reconfigurations at Bayside, Oneonta, Nestor, Pence, Nicoloff, Mendoza and Emory.
• Identify other schools for consolidation/closure.

Option 3:

Year 1

• Close Central. Students and staff go to Bayside/Emory/Mendoza.

Year 2

• Grade configuration changes at Bayside, Oneonta, Emory and Mendoza.

Year 3

• Close Berry. Students and staff go to Nicoloff/Emory/Mendoza.

Year 4

• Nestor grades TK-3 move to vacated Berry.

Year 5

• Close Sunnyslope. Students and staff move to Pence/Mendoza.

Year 6

• Grade configuration changes at Pence and Nicoloff.

Option 4:

Year 1

• Close Central. Students and staff go to Bayside/Emory/Mendoza.

Year 2

• Grade configuration changes at Bayside, Oneonta, Emory, Mendoza, Pence and Nicoloff.

Year 3

• Close Berry. Students and staff go to Nicoloff/Emory/Mendoza. 

Year 4

• Nestor grades TK-3 move to vacated Berry. 

Year 5 

• Close Sunnyslope. Students and staff move to Pence/Mendoza.

District officials have acknowledged that grade configuration changes would be difficult for some families, including those with multiple kids who would attend different campuses. But they said any plan would include extensive planning before being implemented.

Espinoza, who was the first to propose grade reconfigurations, said the change would allow campuses to focus on improving literacy early on, and the ultimate recommendation to the board will need to include a plan to address the issue.

Roughly 90% of South Bay Union students are either below or near the reading and writing standards, according to the most recent state data. About 70% aren’t meeting the overall English standard. 

“When we create a school that only has (transitional kindergarten) to (grade) three, then we can focus any training that we need to provide our teachers,” Espinoza said. “Because that’s really hard for our district — for many districts, but it’s really hard for our district because we only have so much time to train our teachers.” 

Leaving South Bay Union

Some parents have grown tired of waiting for the district to improve.

Lujan told inewsource she’s in charge of taking her son and two grandchildren to and from school. Mendoza Elementary is about a five-minute drive from her home, but her commute has gotten 15 minutes longer after she decided to transfer her son last month to a charter school in Chula Vista. 

Taking her son out of South Bay Union wasn’t something that Lujan wanted to do. She said she was hopeful the district would start offering more programs focused on advanced math, reading and music, and that the academic rigor would improve. 

“There’s not that push for kids… that push to teach them more… The education is stagnant,” she said, adding that her son is now being challenged at his new school where he’s in robotics and learning another language.

It’s a sentiment that Imperial Beach resident Lauren Giardina has heard from neighbors before — that kids at South Bay Union aren’t getting a good education, she said. Giardina, whose two children attend Nestor Academy, said she wants the district to acknowledge and address the real problem: Why aren’t local kids attending South Bay Union schools? 

“On my block right now, we are the only family that sends their kids to South Bay,” she said.

Over 200 families who live within the boundaries of South Bay Union are choosing to go to other school districts, Espinoza said. The ultimate recommendation to the board will need to address student achievement, declining enrollment and how the district can provide needed programs, he said. 

“There’s a reason they’re leaving our district. They’re not getting what they need, so we have to provide something,” Espinoza said.