In his second term as president, Donald Trump has promised to carry out the largest deportation in U.S. history.
Whatever shape his plans take, they could have a huge impact on San Diego County, where an estimated 170,000 undocumented immigrants live.
Among those who could be targeted quickly: migrants who entered the U.S. without a visa in the past two years, those with removal orders and those with Temporary Protected Status, a program giving temporary protection from deportation for citizens of countries in conflict.
It could also include the approximately 530,000 DACA recipients – people who migrated here as children and have been granted temporary legal status through the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals.
Trump and his deputies have offered some early insights into his administration’s approach:
- Prioritizing deportation of people they believe pose a risk to national security and public safety, those with deportation orders and those convicted of crimes, but it’s unclear which “criminals” Trump wants to deport.
- Trump has suggested he would deport entire families including U.S. citizens if they are children in the country legally with undocumented parents.
- Trump’s intention to deploy the military to assist with deportations would raise legal questions and dramatically break with a longstanding avoidance of using the military for domestic affairs.
- Raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, are on the table, particularly in schools, healthcare facilities and places of worship, as Trump plans to roll back a policy limiting those activities in certain places.
The deportations could have significant consequences for San Diego County. Here are a few areas of possible impact we’re watching.
Cost and economy
Mass deportations could be costly to carry out and in terms of their economic impact. The Migration Policy Institute, examined costs for processing, detaining and deporting migrants as well as the impact to the labor force and economy and estimated the impact could be $315 billion.
Nearly one in 10 California workers is an undocumented immigrant. They are overrepresented in industries vital to the U.S. economy, including agriculture, construction, maintenance and landscaping and more.
Undocumented immigrants also make significant contributions to taxes. In 2022, undocumented immigrant households nationally contributed $75.6 billion in federal, state and local taxes.
‘Sanctuary’ battles
A state law that limits cooperation between the feds and local law enforcement for immigration purposes – SB 54, or the California Values Act – is already at the center of local clashes over communities supporting or resisting deportations. The law’s enactment gave California its unofficial status as a “sanctuary” state.
Sanctuary policy supporters say to leave immigration enforcement up to the feds. Opponents say the policies are dangerous for communities and protect criminals, though multiple studies point to lower crime rates in cities with sanctuary policy.
As some local elected officials have sought to build more protections for undocumented immigrants, others have pushed back, creating a confrontation that has drawn a national spotlight and scrutiny – including from the incoming Trump administration which has suggested consequences for jurisdictions with sanctuary policies.
Courts
The deportations are likely to worsen the 3.7 million case backlog, as of September 2024, in immigration court.
While Trump could immediately expel those with deportation orders, immigrants generally have a right to due process, which can include a hearing in front an immigration judge.
“The administration doesn’t get to do away with an individual’s right to have a hearing,” said Michelle Celleri, chair of the San Diego Chapter of American Immigration Lawyers Association.
Millions of new deportation cases added to immigration courts could quadruple the current time to resolve a case from four to 16 years, Axios reports.
Surveillance and detention
Trump’s plan could require an expansion of detention facilities – and some reports indicate ICE is already looking at expanding detention facilities in six states including California.
Surveillance technology used to monitor immigrants under watch by immigration authorities is also likely to expand, according to Dinesh McCoy, a staff attorney at Just Futures Law, a legal advocacy nonprofit pushing for an end to surveillance, incarceration and deportation.
The Department of Homeland Security already uses ankle monitors, and SmartLink, a cell phone application that uses location data and facial recognition, to monitor immigrants not in detention facilities.
Deportations could rely on that technology, as well as facial recognition and data brokers which are also already in use, and include data on U.S. citizens as well as immigrants, Mccoy said.
Type of Content
News: Based on facts, either observed and verified directly by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
