San Diego County transit fares could rise 40% by fall if MTS, NCTD approve hikes this week

Public transit riders in San Diego County can expect the cost of riding buses, trolleys and trains to go up as early as this fall if two transit agencies approve the rate hikes this week. 

Plans to increase fares up to 40% will go in front of the boards of both the Metropolitan Transit System and the North County Transit District on Thursday.

If approved, the fare hikes would go to the San Diego Association of Governments Transportation Committee for final consideration in May and June meetings. 

The two transit agencies are seeking ways to work together to make up for lost revenue and address future budget issues stemming from ridership losses since the pandemic and federal funding reductions, among other challenges.  

North County Transit District CEO Shawn Donaghy said at an April NCTD executive committee meeting that it “makes the best sense for the region” to have fares that are “sustainable and consistent” across both agencies “so that everybody sort of benefits from a county perspective.”

North County Transit District fare proposal

NCTD last had fare increases in 2008-2009 and 2019. 

In April, staff presented the executive committee with two fare increase proposals and plans for a phased approach, which would start with a lower increase the first year before rising again. Metropolitan Transit System staff showed a similar presentation to its board in March.

Metropolitan Transit System District fare proposal

Currently, it costs $2.50 to ride North County’s Breeze bus and Sprinter train. The proposals would increase that to either $3 or $3.50, NCTD Chief of Staff Mary Dover said in her presentation. The Flex service would remain at its current rate of $5. The Coaster would no longer have three separate zones for travel priced at $5, $5.75 and $6.50. Instead, travel in one zone would cost either $6.50 or $8. A regional adult monthly pass would increase from $72 to $90 or $100.

At an MTS board meeting in March, Director of Marketing & Communications Mark Olson and Director of Fare Technology and Operations Israel Maldonado presented two potential plans for MTS. The first plan would raise the adult one-way cost from $2.50 to $3, and the second plan would make the fare $3.50. An adult monthly pass would increase from $72 to $90 or $100, depending on which plan the board adopts. 

The proposals come at a time when the public transit agencies are trying to close budget gaps. NCTD, which currently has a $178.8 million budget, expects to have a $16 million budget deficit by fiscal year 2028. MTS, which has a $473.1 million budget, expects an annual budget deficit to grow from $118 million to $146 million over the next four fiscal years.

NCTD expects the fare increase to increase its revenue annually by $650,000 in the first phase and $1.2 million in the second phase. Fare revenue currently makes up about 7% of the NCTD operating budget, or $12.5 million annually. 

The transit district is expecting the higher fares to impact ridership. It estimates it will lose about 141,000 annual riders or under 2% of passengers in the first phase, and some 235,000 or under 3% in the second. 

The transit district also has a growing problem of people evading paying the fare altogether, according to a February analysis by KPBS. 

MTS projects an annual revenue increase of $11.2 million with the lower proposal and of $16.8 million with the higher option. The agency said it expects to lose 2.3 million annual riders or nearly 3% of passengers with the first proposal and 3.2 million or under 4% with the second. 

The agencies began studying a fare increase and surveying riders about public transit last year. Officials said that people generally prioritized consistent service and said they supported fare changes if necessary. 

“People definitely preferred a higher fare to maintain bus and trolley services as much as possible,” Maldonado said.