Flood or fire? A disaster at Lake Hodges is looming, residents warn

Lake Hodges is a San Diego landmark where people hike, bike, fish, kayak, canoe, bird watch and take photographs against the backdrop of a century-old, city-owned reservoir. 

It’s also a disaster waiting to happen. 

The question is whether calamity would come by flood or by fire. 

An earthquake could destroy the aging dam and flood Rancho Santa Fe and other communities, so San Diego routinely releases water from the reservoir. But many residents fear less water leads to a greater threat of wildfires in an area already among the most at risk in the state. 

“We have a fire opportunity that is massive, and we have now increased the ability to make that fire dramatically,” area resident PJ Lynch said.

A 2022 inspection, maintenance project and subsequent study found concrete deterioration, cracks and other issues with the 108-year-old Lake Hodges dam. California’s Division of Safety of Dams labeled it “unsatisfactory,” which, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, means it “requires immediate or emergency remedial action.”

It is the only dam in the state agency’s jurisdiction with that label. The division recommended a water level of 280 feet or below – 35 feet below the dam’s spillway – because of an “extremely high” downstream hazard where a breach is “expected to cause considerable loss of human life or would result in an inundation area with a population of 1,000 or more.”

That’s led to controlled releases of 13.5 billions of gallons of water in the last four years after heavy rains as a safeguard. 

In an FAQ on its website from August 2025, the city said the reservoir is safe at its current levels. 

“There is not an imminent threat of failure of Hodges Dam,” it says. “The number one priority for the City is maintaining the water level in the reservoir at a safe elevation in accordance with the state regulator to reduce downstream risk in the event of a catastrophic failure caused by a major earthquake.” 

For some residents, their primary fear is fire, not flooding. The fear isn’t theoretical because fire has ripped through the area before. They say it’s not a matter of if the next fire comes but when. And they worry there will be far less water to deter, and later fight, the fire.

“We have 500 acres of dry brush,” Lynch said. “We have kindling wood on everyone’s front yard.”

Brian Caldwell said it was just one extra day that kept his house from burning down in the 2007 Witch Creek Fire. 

“The fire came through and because there was a lake here, it stalled,” he said.

At the time, he and other nearby residents looked over the pedestrian bridge at a nearly full lake, which sat closer to 300 feet high. Today, the same spot overlooks acres of plants known for their flammability.

These residents have come together to form Raise Lake Hodges, a group that is pushing the city to stop releasing water from the reservoir — or at least release less.

San Diego Councilmember Marni von Wilpert, who represents the area, has raised residents’ fire concerns in written reports and at city meetings. At a meeting in January, she said she was still concerned that the Division of Safety of Dams “is likely doing its job to think about the damage that water could do to people, but no one is thinking about the damage that fire can do to people.”

“It’s very hard for me to tell my residents who’ve watched their homes burn to their foundation once before that we’re doing everything we can to keep them safe,” she said. “I just don’t know what to do because I think we’re stuck with this jurisdictional quagmire, and this agency in Sacramento that doesn’t seem to want to answer our questions.”

Advanced deterioration, unacceptable condition

The dam around Lake Hodges was built in 1918, and the city of San Diego bought the dam and reservoir in 1925. The reservoir can hold water up to 315 feet and has a shoreline of 27 miles. It has a water storage capacity of over 30,000 acre-feet. That’s the equivalent of about 10 billion gallons of water or enough to fill some 15,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools.

Last week, the water level sat at 276 feet, which city spokesperson Jennifer McBride said was a few feet below the restriction level in order to “ensure that we won’t exceed the restriction level in the event of rain.”

In northeastern San Diego by Elfin Forest, Lake Hodges provides water to the city of San Diego and to North County’s San Dieguito Water District and Santa Fe Irrigation District. The water reaches Solana Beach, parts of Encinitas and the communities of Rancho Santa Fe and Fairbanks Ranch. 

The San Diego County Water Authority has access to 20,000 acre-feet of storage space, but a spokesperson said the agency has “no plans or need to use it.”

Division of Safety of Dams manager Erik Malvic said that through an engineering study and the agency’s inspections, the dam was labeled “unsatisfactory.” It is the only one under the agency’s jurisdiction labeled as such.

“DSOD’s inspections have observed that the dam has advanced deterioration putting the dam in an unacceptable condition for normal operating conditions,” he said. 

The city was poised to begin building a new dam downstream of Lake Hodges by 2029. But last year, the estimated cost of the project ballooned from $275 million to between $474 million and $697 million, and the county water authority withdrew its support for the rebuild. The city’s plan had the water authority paying half the cost with the rest split evenly among the city and the two smaller water districts. The change left the city exploring other options.  

Without a path toward rebuilding the dam, the city has continued to release water out of the reservoir, with no clear path to a permanent solution for the dam. 

Billions of gallons of water have been released into the ocean in the years since the dam was deemed unsatisfactory, with more set for controlled releases. It’s water that in a perfect world could be used for drinking, recreation and renewable energy. 

‘The fires in L.A. changed everything’

Some residents take issue with the study and conclusions about the dam — they argue that the analysis only looked at the impacts of the dam failing instead of taking into account the likelihood it would happen. 

They also question why the city began releasing water from the reservoir without conducting an environmental review that would show the effects of wildfire on wildlife and the environment. 

Alexandra Berenter, the city public utilities department’s deputy director of external affairs, said the California Environmental Quality Act did not require an environmental impact report for adjusting reservoir levels for safety and regulatory compliance.

The residents argue that a fire is more likely and would be more devastating than a flood. The Lake Hodges area is one of the zones designated as a high severity fire zone, and most residents still remember the 2007 Witch Creek Fire, which killed two people and burned almost 200,000 acres and over 1,000 residences, including 365 homes in Rancho Bernardo.

“If you have a flood, you don’t wipe out the entire ecosystem,” said Paul Bernstein with Raise Lake Hodges.

Residents’ fears multiplied when they saw the fires tear through Los Angeles last year. 

“The big difference is what happened in L.A.,” resident Robert Dudley said at a March San Diego City Council meeting. “The fires in L.A. have changed everything.”

The group has sought guidance from Larry Vein, who runs Pali Strong, a grassroots organization that has advocated for residents in the Pacific Palisades since the fires last year. 

Vein lived through the Palisades fire and can still remember driving his 4-month-old son through Los Angeles as everything around him burned. He commends the San Diego residents, who call themselves “proactivists,” for their community advocacy because he said it is imperative to act before the fire comes. 

“To not have the water resources and the equipment resources necessary, to not have the resources available to mitigate the fires and the damage they can cause, is a huge oversight,” Vein said. “You need to be prepared for a worst-case scenario.” 

In the nearly 16 months since the Los Angeles fires, there has been significant backlash over the response. Mayor Karen Bass removed the fire chief in February 2025 after the chief refused to do an after action report. 

Many residents there also pointed to insufficient water — in particular, the Santa Ynez Reservoir was empty for repairs at the time of the fires. 

After Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered an investigation, California officials eventually concluded that there was enough water at the time of the fire, but that the water system isn’t designed to handle large-scale wildfires, according to reporting from the Los Angeles Times. 

The Los Angeles Times reported that even if that reservoir had been full, the water system would have been quickly overwhelmed in fighting the fire.  

Still, homeowners filed lawsuits against the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, arguing it failed to adequately prepare for and respond to the fire.

The residents say that a body of water like the Hodges reservoir creates a buffer zone and cooling effect to impede or stall a fire. They want the water level of the reservoir to sit at 295 feet — enough to serve a water pump, and protect people in a fire. 

Berenter, the San Diego city official, said the current water level at Lake Hodges is sufficient for the fire department and the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection in the event of a fire. 

“SDFD and Cal Fire have assured us their equipment can access water in Hodges as well as multiple other surrounding water sources as needed,” she said. “Vegetation along the exposed shoreline and within the lakebed of the reservoir is a protected wetland under local, state, and federal regulations.”

‘Charting our best path forward’

Assemblymember Darshana Patel represents the area at the State House in Sacramento. She said that the Division of Safety of Dams looked at Lake Hodges safety issues around seismic activity, that residents are looking at it from a fire risk and that politicians have to consider both threats.

 “They’re just using different lenses in their approach,” she said, “and we will have to take all of that information into consideration when we are charting our best path forward.” 

Another group of concerned neighbors called Friends of Lake Hodges is also worried about the dam’s condition, but doesn’t think that the answer is as simple as raising the water level. 

“We’re not engineers,” said Rhonda Farrar, the group’s president. “No, we can’t possibly say whether that’s the right thing to do.” 

Farrar said she’s focused on urging those in charge to rebuild the dam because if the dam fails, there will be flooding in Rancho Santa Fe and other communities downstream of Lake Hodges. 

“It would not just be immediate inundation of water to those downstream communities. It would be, every year flooding,” she said. “It would just be devastating.”

Kevin Kidd, a former diver with the city who has completed several inspections of the dam and worked with the Division of Safety of Dams, doesn’t think the dam is likely to fail. 

“Like most dams I have inspected, the lower sections of the dam were in good condition with little deterioration,” he said. “I am not implying that the dam is in great shape, it is not. However, they have not provided any supportive detailed evidence to warrant dropping the level below 295 feet.”

Increased water costs

Drawing down the water also means many people throughout the county pay more for their water. 

The city has released water from the reservoir on 13 separate occasions since 2022, according to a list provided to inewsource. It totaled over 41,500 acre-feet, or about 13.5 billion gallons of water. 

Seth Gates, the assistant general manager of the Santa Fe Irrigation District, said that Lake Hodges was an “extremely important” source of water for his district: Prior to the city releasing water from the reservoir, it made up between 30% and 40% of the district’s water.

Whereas it previously cost $250 to treat each acre-foot, now that the district buys its water from the San Diego County Water Authority, it costs over $1,600. That meant the district had to increase water rates.

Gates said the district tried to work with the city, but after being unable to resolve the issue, the Santa Fe Irrigation District and the San Dieguito Water District filed a lawsuit against the city of San Diego in 2024. It cites breach of contract and loss of local water, among other claims. Their complaint alleges that the lack of proper maintenance of Hodges Dam resulted in an unsatisfactory rating by the Division of Safety of Dams and a mandated restricted lower lake level.

In the two years leading up to that lawsuit, the city had released over 5.5 billion gallons of the districts’ water into the ocean, equaling an approximate loss of $21 million or the equivalent of two years of water supply for the Santa Fe Irrigation and San Dieguito Water districts. 

Gates said the city was negligent in its upkeep of the dam. He said a trial is slated for spring 2027. 

The lower water levels also means the San Diego County Water Authority cannot use a pump system it spent $208 million on. Lake Hodges is connected to the Olivenhain Reservoir through the Lake Hodges Pumped Storage Facility, which the county water authority completed in 2012. During low energy demand, water can be pumped from Lake Hodges to Olivenhain. But in order to use that pump, there needs to be 290 feet of water in Lake Hodges. 

That means that the pump has sat idle in recent years. 

‘Escalating and foreseeable risks’ 

The state requires an interim solution for Lake Hodges by 2029. McBride, the city spokesperson, said that the city is pursuing both interim and long-term risk reduction projects. She said the city will release more information on interim risk reduction in the next few months, and a long-term project in 2027. 

The San Diego City Council recently approved two 10-year design services contracts with consultants at up to $75 million each that will support as needed repairs for all of the city’s dams. Those contracts did not include any specific plans for the Lake Hodges dam. 

To protect against wildfires, the state recently allocated $1.5 million to clear 40 acres of high-risk brush near Lake Hodges dam. That’s a small portion of the total recommended area of 173 acres. Crews will need to do maintenance on the area before five years to ensure it is effective, said Walter Bishop, the city’s director of governmental affairs. For the residents, the one-time funding is not enough. 

“It’s a nice measure, but it’s really not going to do anything to prevent a fire here,” Bernstein said.  

On Tuesday, the San Dieguito River Park Joint Powers Authority, which is made up of elected officials, sent a letter to San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria asking the city for an interim solution of raising the water to 295 feet. The letter asks the city to provide evidence if that cannot be reached, and to engage the division of safety of dams in a “holistic, risk balanced approach.”  

The letter came from an April 3 vote by the board backed by Solana Beach City Council member Jill MacDonald, Del Mar City Council member Terry Gaasterland, Escondido City Council member Consuelo Martinez, Poway City Council member Jenny Maeda, county representative Andrew Hayes and Citizens Advisory Committee member Chris Khoury. 

San Diego County Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer and von Wilpert are on the board but were absent for the vote.  

The letter acknowledges that the city has done some work towards protecting public safety, but says it has not been enough. 

It urges officials to “recognize that maintaining the reservoir at extremely low levels introduces escalating and foreseeable risks, including wildfire risk and ecological degradation.”

Editor’s note: Robert Dudley is an inewsource donor and Spotlight Club member. Our policy is to disclose when supporters are quoted in stories.