Two Republicans greatly outraising all others in North San Diego County supervisor race

With voting underway this week, the two Republicans in the race for the San Diego County supervisors’ district that spans North and parts of East County have massive fundraising advantages over three other candidates on the ballot. Voting ends June 2, and the top two candidates regardless of party affiliation will advance to a Nov. 3 runoff election in District 5.

The seat is technically nonpartisan, but party politics and views can play a role in campaigns and policy decisions. Republicans have long held the seat — since 2019 by Jim Desmond, who is termed out and running for Congress, and before that (and term limits), by Bill Horn since 1995.

The Republicans in this race have been running for years. Vista Mayor John Franklin has raised $909,000 and spent $339,000 since starting his campaign in 2023. San Marcos Mayor Rebecca Jones has raised $341,000 and spent $184,000 since 2024. No one else is even close.

Kyle Krahel, the former chair of the San Diego County Democratic Party, has raised $68,000 and spent $69,000 since last year. Independent Sasha Miller, a Cal State San Marcos professor, has received $7,900 and spent $840. Democrat Norma Contreras, the former chair of the La Jolla Band of Luiseño Indians tribe, has collected $25 and has spent $550.

Financial disclosures show, as of April 18, Franklin had $548,000 cash on hand, Jones had $162,000, Krahel had $10,000, Miller had $7,000 and Contreras had $24. That means Franklin had three times as much money to spend as all of the other candidates combined.

Many of the candidates have raised more money since April 18, but there is no public disclosure of how much they have spent. 

Individual campaign contributions are limited to $1,100 per person per election, but donors can give $2,200 in a cycle by giving to a candidate for the primary election and the runoff election.

Political parties can donate $35,250 to supervisorial races.

The race in a district that has had a Republican supervisor for decades could determine the makeup of the Board of Supervisors. Democrats may be betting on Krahel making it through the primary without spending much. Republicans, meanwhile, are split between their party’s two candidates who are vying for the seat. 

The local Democratic Party endorsed Krahel, but Desmond is letting two candidates he calls friends compete for the seat without his involvement and the county Republican party was divided when it voted on an endorsement in the race this year, leaving both candidates short of the total needed to secure one. Franklin has the endorsements from many establishment Republicans. Jones is endorsed by state Assemblymember Carl DeMaio’s “Reform California.”

The district, which has nearly 700,000 residents and nearly 400,000 registered voters, is often a toss-up. Democrats have a slight voter registration edge over Republicans, 36% to 32% and nearly 23% of the voters are listed as “no party preference.” Going back to 2014, district voters have cast more ballots for Democrats than for Republicans in three presidential elections but have voted in greater numbers for Republicans than for Democrats in three gubernatorial races.

Political observers say it’s likely that one Republican and one Democrat will emerge from the primary election and move on to the general election in November. Expect more spending in that runoff election, including a lot of independent expenditures.

The five-person Board of Supervisors, which governs all of San Diego County, currently has a 3-2 Democratic majority. Republicans want to hold onto Desmond’s seat to retain the collective power they have to block certain actions, and San Diego Democrats hope they can obtain a 4-1 “supermajority,” which would give them even more control over the budget and other issues. 

The district includes the cities of Escondido, Oceanside, Vista and San Marcos as well as several unincorporated communities and tribal nations in northeastern San Diego County.