Why this matters
The city of San Diego’s solution for a dam state regulators say requires immediate or emergency remedial action won’t be completed for years. Storms could cause flooding this winter.
San Diego’s Lake Hodges already has an “extremely high” flood risk. Regulators fear a dam breach would cause “considerable loss of human life” where more than 1,000 people live. But as El Niño threatens torrential rain this winter, the downstream danger could be even greater.
An October state audit painted a bleak picture of California’s dams ahead of expected heavy rain this winter, and called on the Legislature to increase the state Department of Water Resources’ enforcement authority and require new emergency action plans from dam owners.
The 108-year-old Lake Hodges Dam in northeastern San Diego County is the most at-risk among more than 1,200 monitored by the California Department of Water Resources’ Division of Safety of Dams. It is the only one labeled “unsatisfactory,” meaning it requires immediate or emergency action.
The city of San Diego’s solution has been to release billions of gallons of water over the past four years in order to keep the water level at the state’s recommended 280 feet, 35 feet below its current spillway, but surrounding residents think that’s courting disaster.
The city’s new plan is to lower the spillway to 280 feet — work that could cost up to $50 million, and might not be done until 2035. That has further upset area residents, some of whom fear an increased fire risk or just want a longer-term solution.
Rhonda Ferrar, who runs a group called Friends of Lake Hodges, has been advocating for the dam to be replaced for years.
She is concerned that by the time the city completes its interim plan, the spillwaydam would be underwater already.
“We’re puzzling as to why taxpayers would ever want to spend that money to do that,” she said. “That just seems such a waste.”
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Meanwhile, El Niño, a periodic weather event in which the Pacific Ocean warms, could cause flooding this winter, said Alexander Gershunov, a Scripps Institution of Oceanography research meteorologist.
“The risks for a wet winter and more flooding are greater than average this winter because of El Niño and global warming,” he said.
People living in the area called on city and state officials to use Gov. Gavin Newsom’s September declaration of a state of emergency, which directed the state to prioritize critical infrastructure projects ahead of the El Niño-fueled storms, to secure improvements to the Lake Hodges Dam.
Those pleas went unanswered.
Kevin Kidd, a former diver with the city of San Diego who has been advocating for a solution at Lake Hodges, said the decision to lower the dam is shortsighted, and will limit the city’s ability to control flooding.
“If we got record rains, or we got an incredible amount of rain, there’s no way that they could keep it from going over 280,” Kidd said.
What El Niño means for dams
Coastal areas are already seeing the effects of El Nino in huge waves, high sea levels and flooding. Heavy rain expected this weekend could contribute to higher water levels and increased storms.
Storms that affect dams are typically atmospheric river storms. Those are not necessarily more frequent during El Niño, but when they do come, they tend to be wetter. They will also arrive during an overall wetter winter because more frequent rain and other storms have already created wet soil that is unable to absorb the water.
Brian Caldwell, who used to work in recreation activities at Lake Hodges, said he remembers seeing it overflow in 1998, which was an El Niño year.
The reservoir has also overflowed during several other storms.
Caldwall said he’s unsure what to expect this year.
“It has a potential to really flood badly, but that’s only if the rain comes. It’s expected, but who knows?” he said.
Newsom’s September state of emergency proclamation said the state would prioritize work to help local agencies prepare for anticipated impacts, including flood management infrastructure repairs. It cites a 90% chance of a “very strong event,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.
The climate prediction center this month reiterated that, saying there remains a greater than 83% chance that a strong to very strong El Niño is likely in the first three months of 2027.
Residents with the group Raise Lake Hodges have been fighting for the city to raise the water levels as they are concerned about fire risks. They hoped that the emergency proclamation could help.
In a letter to both city and state officials, area resident Paul Bernstein asked to get Lake Hodges Dam on a priority list for repairs and to consider raising the reservoir’s operating level to 295 feet, which would enable use of a pump station that San Diego County spent $208 million on.
Neither the city nor the state did so.
Assemblymember Darshana Patel, who represents the area, said that Newsom’s proclamation does not provide funding for projects like Lake Hodges, but does give the state “additional tools to prepare for flooding and support local governments ahead of severe weather.”
She said her office has been in contact with the state’s Department of Water Resources.
“Lake Hodges has been a longstanding concern for the communities I represent, and the potential for a severe El Niño season makes those concerns even more urgent,” Patel said. “I am concerned about the potential impacts heavy rainfall could have on the surrounding community, particularly given the condition of the dam, and I will continue advocating for the resources, technical assistance and coordination needed to protect residents and prepare for potential flooding.”
A city of San Diego spokesperson also said that the Lake Hodges project does not qualify for emergency funding Newsom outlined in his proclamation. Supervising Public Information Officer Jennifer McBride said the city would continue to monitor weather impacts and make necessary Lake Hodges releases.
“This includes continuous monitoring of reservoir levels, inflow forecasts, and storm conditions every rain season and especially during strong El Niño years,” McBride said. “If conditions require controlled releases, they will be carried out in accordance with all safety and regulatory requirements and managed to reduce downstream impacts as much as possible.
The ‘unsatisfactory’ Lake Hodges
Lake Hodges is the only dam in the state labeled “unsatisfactory.” That means it “requires immediate or emergency remedial action.” If water levels are not kept at 280 feet, the state agency said there is an “extremely high” downstream hazard where a breach is “expected to cause considerable loss of human life or would result in an inundation area with a population of 1,000 or more.”
That’s led to controlled releases of 13.5 billions of gallons of water in the last four years after heavy rains as a safeguard.
The city was poised to begin building a new dam downstream of Lake Hodges by 2029. But last year, the estimated cost of the project ballooned from $275 million to between $474 million and $697 million, and the San Diego County Water Authority withdrew its support for the rebuild. The city’s plan had the water authority paying half the cost with the rest split evenly among the city and the two smaller water districts. The change left the city exploring other options.
The city of San Diego said it would release more details about a long-term plan in 2027.
Ferrar, an advocate for addressing the dam’s dangers in a more timely way, is still hopeful that the community can work with the city to establish a long-term solution.
“We are looking to collaborate with all the government bodies, all the stakeholders, to get this new dam built as quickly as possible,” Ferrar said.
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News: Based on facts, either observed and verified directly by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
